Nvidia needs to grow by 70% a year to support its stock price Nvidia’s stock is unlikely to produce the return that exuberant investors are expecting. Nvidia (NVDA) shareholders need a reality check. Nvidia’s stock price is currently trading on the implicit assumption of faster growth than even the most optimistic Wall Street analyst is projecting. Nvidia’s stock is unlikely to produce the return that exuberant investors are expecting. Pointing this out is not a criticism of the company, whose performance has been nothing short of phenomenal. It’s a matter of simple math: How fast must Nvidia grow to support its stock price? The answer depends on two key points: What the stock’s return will be over the next five years: It would be unrealistic to assume Nvidia’s stock will appreciate at the same fantastic rate it has over the past 12 months (176%) or the past five years (100%

At Computex 2024, Jensen Huang spent his keynote articulating the company’s opportunities ahead as we embark on the next industrial revolution, driven by AI factories. We see this sea change as in the very early innings. On the hardware side, Blackwell remains slated to ramp in the second half this year, with an Ultra Blackwell chip slated for 2025, while the successor to Blackwell was also announced (named Rubin) and is likely to ramp in early 2026. This is in line with NVDA’s intent to reduce the GPU cadence. Although Jensen didn’t go into details, Rubin is likely to provide a massive step up in compute to Blackwell and will be based on HBM4. On the software side, NVDA’s competitive moat appears stronger than ever given its ability to control the entire stack and more than 350 (and growing) domain specific libraries that continue to help support penetration into new