Spotify’s Q1 Outlook: Analyst Anticipates Surge in Subscriber Base and Revenue Per User
Keybanc analyst Justin Patterson maintained Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT) with an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $300 to $350. Spotify will report its first-quarter fiscal 2024 results before the market opens on April 23. Patterson refined his estimates and framed vital factors to watch. The analyst now expects 2024 revenue of €15.4 billion and 2025 revenue of €18.0 billion, which reflects slightly higher ARPU growth. His 2024 operating profit decreases by 20% due to social charges, while 2025 increases by 2% due to higher revenue. Finally, Patterson introduced 2026 revenue of €20.6 billion and an operating profit of €2.2 billion, which assumes 14% revenue growth, 29.9% gross margin, and 10.5% operating margin. Due to the higher revenue and profitability forecasts, Patterson raised his price target, implying 3.4x 2025E EV/S and 34.7x 2025E EV/FCF. For reference, the analyst noted that Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) saw its EV/S multiple expand by ~50% over five years […]
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