The US consumer packaged goods sector may see another challenging year in 2024 amid uncertain rates of volumetric recovery while stock recommendations remain biased toward quality and selective value brands, Deutsche Bank said in a note emailed Tuesday.
Last year was a difficult one for staples given decelerating pricing benefits, sluggish volumetric demand, notably in the US and China, and elevated interest rates, analyst Steve Powers said.
The sector is also dealing with “the rise of new existential threats” across the food and beverage industry amid the emergence of glucagon-like peptide 1, or GLP-1, class of drugs, according to the report. GLP-1’s aim to lower blood sugar as a treatment for Type 2 diabetes and obesity, and can also reduce appetite.
In 2024, “we expect another challenging year fundamentally, characterized by questionable rates of volumetric recovery, potentially challenging price/mix, and thus slowing organic growth (likely in both the US and abroad,) — even if going-in cost/margin dynamics remain broadly favorable,” Powers wrote.
Deutsche Bank downgraded Estee Lauder (EL) and Simply Good Foods (SMPL) to hold from buy amid “recent price appreciation.”
Among Deutsche Bank’s quality recommendations are Procter & Gamble (PG), Mondelez International (MDLZ), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Monster Beverage (MNST) and Church & Dwight (CHD). It also recommends value companies, including Kraft Heinz (KHC), Coty (COTY), Kenvue (KVUE), Nomad Foods (NOMD) and Dole (DOLE).
“By subsector, we maintain a bias for (household and personal care) going into the New Year, but with eye for more tactical opportunity in food (once top-line stability is more imminent and earnings downside mitigated) and eventual openings in beverages,” Powers wrote.
The brokerage also favors companies with multinational operations amid the dollar’s weakness.