Tesla (TSLA) might push deliveries in the final two weeks due to Inflation Reduction Act pull-forward, creating forecasting uncertainty, RBC Capital Markets said in a note.
Analyst Tom Narayan said that RBC expects Tesla to deliver 456,000 vehicles in Q4, 1.1% below the consensus, based on registration data and app downloads. This would be an increase of 4.8% sequentially and would bring the total number of delivers in 2023 to 1.78 million units.
The analyst said that RBC’s registration data trends point to a weak start to the quarter in Europe, China, and the US, but strength in China in November or early December. However, the firm did call registration data from China to be “choppy.”
App downloads also show China being the strongest region, and suggest a stronger finish to the quarter across all regions, the analyst added.
“Some of Tesla’s US customers will lose access to the $7,500 federal tax credit starting in 2024, creating a pull-forward into the last few weeks of Q4 that creates forecasting uncertainty,” the analyst said.
The firm has an outperform rating on Tesla with a $300 price target.