CFRA Reiterates Strong Buy Opinion On Shares Of Pepsico, Inc.

We lower our 12-month target by $15 to $210, based on a 2025 P/E of 24x, versus its 5-year mean forward P/E of 24.4x. We raise our adjusted EPS estimates by $0.10 to $7.60 for ’23, by $0.05 to $8.10 for ’24, and introduce ’25 at $8.75. PEP posts Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.25 vs. $1.97 (+16%), well ahead of the $2.15 consensus. Net revenue rose 6.7% to $23.45B ($50M above consensus) on robust organic revenue growth of 9%. As detailed in our Thematic report, (Beverages: Have Price Increases Reached the Point of Demand Destruction?), aggressive price increases are beginning to hurt volumes, as PEP’s beverage volumes were flat and food/snack volumes fell 1.5%. PEP raised full year EPS guidance to $7.54 from $7.47, implying 11% growth from the $6.79 earned in ’22. Incredibly, PEP has posted a quarterly earnings miss only once since 2009. We think recent softness in PEP and Consumer Staples names more broadly makes for a particularly compelling entry point, and reiterate our Strong Buy on this S&P Dividend Aristocrat.

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