For the third time since June, Investment bank Goldman Sachs lowered the odds on a recession hitting the U.S. in the next 12 months.
It now sees the chances of a contraction at 15%, down from a probability of 20% in July. It had the odds at 35% in March as regional banks were roiled by market turmoil.
To be sure, Goldman Chief Economist Jan Hatzius still sees a slowdown in the fourth quarter. But it will be “shallow and short-lived,” he said in a Monday note. Economists in a Bloomberg survey see about a 60% chance of recession in the coming year as an aggressive campaign of interest-rate increases hits the economy.