Adobe Inc.(NASDAQ:ADBE) Stock price trend forecast and trading range:
Updated to: 2023.1.6
(Note: The upper red line in the picture is the resistance, and the lower red line is the support)
Analysis from stock chart
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Short-term trend: the risk of stock price decline is high
Sell high and buy low of range : none
Support: $320 resistance: $350 Stop Loss Price: $320 price target: none Buy the position again: stop fall and rise to $320
Medium-term trend: the risk of stock price decline is high
High sell low buy range: none
Support: $320 resistance: $350 Stop Loss price: $320 price target: none Buy the position again: stop fall and rise to $320
Long-term trend: the risk of stock price decline is high
High sell low buy of range: none
Support : $310 resistance: $350 Stop Loss price: $310 price target : none Buy the position again: stop fall and rise to $310
From Analysis from financial statements:
Revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 was $4.53 billion, market estimates of $4.53 billion, YoY+10%, net income attributable to common shareholders of $1.176 billion, $1.273 billion a year earlier, EPS at $2.53, $2.57 a year earlier. R&D expenses were $773 million. Revenue growth has slowed, but its valuation cannot be calculated conservatively, and its special industry position can be further expanded through M&A transactions, and the focus is on performance guidance. The historical high of the stock price may have been formed, and the stock price in the later period is basically in a large swing market, and it is recommended to focus on right-hand trading.
Historical Forecast Record:
2022.12.30 From the stock chart analysis, the recent stock price has remained between $325-$350, short-term transactions is very good high sell low buying opportunity, buy price $325, stop loss price $320, target price of $340. The medium-term and long-term are temporarily lacking in trend and are not recommended for trading.
2022.12.16 From the analysis of stock technical graphics, today’s stock price opened high in the context of favorable earnings and then quickly rushed higher, and then followed the index to fall steadily, the upper selling pressure is obvious, the market fear of heights is obvious, and the short-term top of $355 above may be established. Aggressive investors can sell high and low above $330 with a stop loss of $330. The probability of the stock price falling back to $320-$350 range volatility has risen sharply, it is recommended that short-term trading try to buy against the lower band of the range, sell on the upper band, and if the stock price falls below $320, it is recommended to leave the market and wait and see. It is not recommended to hold and trade below the 60-day moving average.
2022.12.15 From the stock technical chart analysis, the recent stock price maintained a range of volatility between $320-$350, the possibility of choosing the direction in the near future is higher, it is recommended that short-term trading is backed by the 60-day moving average high selling low absorption, stop loss price 60-day moving average, medium and long-term is also held above the 60-day moving average, the stock price stops falling and rises after the closing price is above the 60-day moving average can be made up. It is not recommended to hold and trade below the 60-day moving average.
2022.9.15 From the technical graphic, affected by the release of the Q3 performance report, the latest quotation of $329.76 has plummeted 11% pre-market, falling below the previous stage low, and the stock price hit a new low since the adjustment. The next support level of $300, from the K-line combination, it is not recommended to read the bottom, the later period may fall full of stamina, based on valuation factors, the stock price still has a certain downside, temporarily see $240. It is recommended that the position should not exceed 10%. From a fundamental point of view, Q3 2022 achieved sales revenue of $4.433 billion, YoY+13%, net profit attributable to common shareholders of $1.136 billion, YoY-6.27%, and EPS of $2.42. Q3 performance growth further fell to 13%, I think the reasonable TTM is 20 times. Q4 sales are expected to be approximately USD 4.52 billion. The current stock price does not have long-term holding value space for the time being.
2021.12.24 From the technical chart, the stock price has rebounded, with a medium and long-term buy point of $550 and a stop loss of $500. Short-term trading is temporarily avoided, and there is no good trading range. In the near term, focus on the strength of support below $550 and $500, and if the support is effective, short-term operation Bo rebound opportunities. Today’s sharp drop in volume is mainly due to the announcement of the fourth quarter of 2021 financial report, and the net profit fell sharply by 45% year-on-year. The company’s performance growth rate has slowed down significantly. From a fundamental point of view, the company’s stock price and performance have a large premium, and investors pay attention to the risk of falling stock prices when the stock price falls.
2021.12.18 From the technical graph, the stock price continued to fall today, briefly falling below $550 during the session, and then rebounded to close at $556. Has fallen below all moving average support, long single avoidance, near focus on the support below $550 and $500, if the support is effective, short-term operation Bo rebound opportunity. Today’s sharp drop in volume is mainly due to the announcement of the fourth quarter of 2021 financial report, and the net profit fell sharply by 45% year-on-year. The company’s performance growth rate has slowed down significantly. From a fundamental point of view, the company’s stock price and performance have a certain premium, and investors pay attention to the risk of falling stock prices when the stock price falls.
Key Quote Data:
52 Week Range: 274.73-575.00
P/E Ratio(TTM): 32.95
EPS(TTM): $10.1
Market Cap: $154.7 B
Beta: 1.22
Number of employees: 25988 historical data 22516
Summary of recent financial statements
2022.12.15 Revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 was US$4.53 billion, Market estimates US$4.53 billion, YoY+10%, net income attributable to common shareholders was US$1.176 billion, US$1.273 billion a year earlier, and EPS was US$2.53 ，US$2.57 a year earlier. R&D expenses were $773 million. (Note: The default is GAAP, Non-GAAP will be explained separately)
Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 Financial Highlights
Adobe achieved revenue of $4.53 billion in its fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022, which represents 10 percent year-over-year growth or 14 percent in constant currency. Diluted earnings per share was $2.53 on a GAAP basis and $3.60 on a non-GAAP basis.
GAAP operating income in the fourth quarter was $1.51 billion and non-GAAP operating income was $2.02 billion. GAAP net income was $1.18 billion and non-GAAP net income was $1.68 billion.
Record cash flows from operations were $2.33 billion.
Remaining Performance Obligations (“RPO”) exiting the quarter were $15.19 billion.
Adobe repurchased approximately 5.0 million shares during the quarter.
Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 Business Segment Highlights
Digital Media segment revenue was $3.30 billion；Net new Digital Media Annualized Recurring Revenue (“ARR”) was $576 million, exiting the quarter with Digital Media ARR of $13.97 billion. Creative ARR grew to $11.60 billion and Document Cloud ARR grew to $2.37 billion.Digital Experience segment revenue was $1.15 billion, representing 14 percent year-over-year growth or 16 percent in constant currency. Digital Experience subscription revenue was $1.01 billion, representing 14 percent year-over-year growth or 16 percent in constant currency.
Fiscal Year 2022 Financial Highlights
Adobe achieved revenue of $17.61 billion in fiscal year 2022, which represents 12 percent year-over-year growth or 15 percent adjusted year-over-year growth. Diluted earnings per share was $10.10 on a GAAP basis and $13.71 on a non-GAAP basis.
GAAP operating income was $6.10 billion and non-GAAP operating income was $7.95 billion. GAAP net income was $4.76 billion and non-GAAP net income was $6.46 billion.
Adobe generated a record $7.84 billion in operating cash flows during the year.
Adobe repurchased approximately 15.7 million shares during the year.
Fiscal Year 2022 Business Segment Highlights
Digital Media segment revenue was $12.84 billion, which represents 11 percent year-over-year growth or 16 percent adjusted year-over-year growth. Net new Digital Media ARR was $1.91 billion during the fiscal year.
Creative revenue grew to $10.46 billion, representing 10 percent year-over-year growth or 14 percent adjusted year-over-year growth.
Document Cloud revenue was $2.38 billion, representing 21 percent year-over-year growth or 24 percent adjusted year-over-year growth.
Digital Experience segment revenue was $4.42 billion, representing 14 percent year-over-year growth or 17 percent adjusted year-over-year growth1. Digital Experience subscription revenue was $3.88 billion, representing 15 percent year-over-year growth or 18 percent adjusted year-over-year growth.
2023 guidance:
Maintain 2023 revenue expectations unchanged at $19.1-19.3 billion, analysts expected $19.4 billion; First-quarter revenue is expected to be $4.60-4.64 billion, compared with analysts’ expectations of $4.65 billion.
About Adobe, Inc. (Nasdaq:ADBE)
Adobe, Inc. engages in the provision of digital marketing and media solutions. It operates through the following segments: Digital Media, Digital Experience, and Publishing. The Digital Media segment offers creative cloud services, which allow members to download and install the latest versions of products, such as Adobe Photoshop, Adobe Illustrator, Adobe Premiere Pro, Adobe Photoshop Lightroom and Adobe InDesign, as well as utilize other tools, such as Adobe Acrobat. The Digital Experience segment provides solutions, including analytics, social marketing, targeting, media optimization, digital experience management, and cross-channel campaign management, as well as premium video delivery and monetization. The Publishing segment includes legacy products and services for eLearning solutions, technical document publishing, web application development, and high-end printing. The company was founded by Charles M. Geschke and John E. Warnock in December 1982 and is headquartered in San Jose, CA.