Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Stock price trend forecast and trading range:
Updated to: 2023.1.6
(Note: The upper red line in the picture is the resistance, and the lower red line is the support)
Analysis from stock chart
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Short-term trend: stop falling and rebound
Sell high and buy low of range : $82 – $89
Support: $81 resistance: $90 Stop Loss Price: $81 price target: 89$ Buy the position again: stop fall and rise to $82
Mid-line trend: Short-term stop falling
High sell low buy range: $83 – $95
Support: $81 resistance: $95 Stop Loss price: $81 price target: $95 Buy the position again: stop fall and rise to $83
Long-term trend: Short-term stop falling
High sell low buy of range: $83 – $105
Support : $81 resistance: $105 Stop Loss price: $81 price target : $105 Buy the position again: stop fall and rise to $85
From Analysis from financial statements:
In fiscal 2022, Q3 achieved revenue of $127.101 billion, market expectations of $127.764 billion, YoY+14.70%, net profit of $2.872 billion, YoY-9.00%, EPS of $0.28, YoY-8.50%, and market expectations of $1.75. Rising interest rates and expectations lead to lower demand, rising valuation pressures, uncertain valuation safety margins, and pessimistic expectations that stock prices could fall to $70 or even below. The probability of stock price fluctuations between $80 and $105 is high in the near future, focusing on Q4 financial statements. It is recommended to use the stock price technical indicator as a trading strategy. Long-term trading keeps the right side trading dominant. The current share price of $83 is suitable for long-term holding, but short-term yields are uncertain.
Historical forecast record:
2022.11.17 From the technical chart, the long-term downtrend in the stock price has not ended, and the probability of another dip of $90 is very high. From the perspective of K-line technical form, the recent short-term trading backed by $90 Bo rebound or high selling low absorption is a higher return range, and the recommended trading range is between $90 and $105. The mid-line buy point is between $86 and $95, and there can be no stop loss. For the time being, there is no long-term holding space.
2021.11.04 From the technical chart, the stock price has no trend market, the recent expected fluctuation range is between 3100-3500 US dollars, it is recommended to sell high and low in the range, fall below the range of long orders stop loss exit, rise above the range a small number of long orders to test the trend market. From a fundamental point of view, the company’s business has further grown, and in the future, it can continue to grow, similarly, first-class enterprises, strong market competitiveness, as value investors, should be bullish and hold for a long time.
2021.10.23 From the technical chart, the stock price has no trend market, the recent expected fluctuation range is between 3100-3500 US dollars, it is recommended to sell high and low in the range, fall below the range of multiple orders stop loss exit, rise above the range a small number of long orders to test the trend market. From a fundamental point of view, the company’s business has further grown, and in the future, it can continue to grow, similarly, first-class enterprises, strong market competitiveness, as value investors, should be bullish and hold for a long time.
2021.10.22 Credit Suisse: Lowered Amazon price target from $4,700 to $4,200. 2021.10.5 From the technical chart, the stock price fell back below the 60-day moving average again, in the context of the decline of the index, the stock price has signs of further weakening, testing the support of the $3,000 line, purely from the graphical point of view is with downside risk, should be patient after the risk release, the stock price stabilizes and then risks. In the short term, stock prices no longer have the possibility of upward momentum and trend. From a fundamental point of view, the company’s business has further grown, and in the future, it can continue to grow, similarly, first-class enterprises, strong market competitiveness, as value investors, should be bullish and hold for a long time.
2021.9.28 From the technical chart, the stock price fell back below the 60-day moving average again, testing the support of the $3,200 line, purely from the graphical point of view is with downside risk, should be patient after the risk release, the stock price stabilizes and then carries out the risk. From a fundamental point of view, the company’s business has further grown, and in the future, it can continue to grow, similarly, first-class enterprises, strong market competitiveness, as value investors, should be bullish and hold for a long time.
2021.8.11 From the technical graphics point of view, the stock price has broken, there is a risk of further decline in the future, the current focus is on the support of the $3200 line, this technical graphic I personally do not recommend to read the bottom, purely from the graphical point of view is with downside risk, should be patient after the risk release, the stock price stabilizes and then carries out the risk. From a fundamental point of view, the company’s business has further grown, and in the future, it can continue to grow, similarly, first-class enterprises, strong market competitiveness, as value investors, should be bullish and hold for a long time.
Key Quote Data:
52 Week Range: 81.43 – 170.83
P/E Ratio(TTM): 78.18
EPS(TTM): $1.08
Market Cap: $877.8 B
Beta: 1.17
Number of employees : 1608000 Historical data 1298000
Summary of recent financial statements
2022.10.27 Q3 2022 achieved Net sales of US$127.101 billion, expected $127.764 billion, YoY+14.70%, net income attributable to common shareholders of US$2.872 billion, YoY-9.00, EPS US$0.28, YoY-8.50, expected US$1.75. Third-quarter operating profit of $2.5 billion, down 48% year-over-year, is estimated to be $3.11 billion. Operating profit margin for the third quarter was 2%, compared to 4.4% in the same period last year, and the market forecast was 2.48%. Implementation expenses were US$20.58 billion, an increase of 11 year-on-year, and the market estimated US$21.58 billion.
Net sales increased 15% in the third quarter compared to $110.8 billion in the third quarter of 2021, and excluding the adverse impact of $5.0 billion due to year-over-year changes in foreign exchange rates for the quarter, net sales increased 19% compared to the third quarter of 2021. North America sales increased 20 percent year-over-year to $78.8 billion. International sales decreased 5 percent to $27.7 billion, but increased 12 percent excluding currency changes. AWS segment sales increased 27 percent year-over-year to $20.5 billion, up 28 percent excluding currency changes.
Operating income declined to $2.5 billion in the third quarter, compared to $4.9 billion in the third quarter of 2021. Operating loss in North America was $400 million, compared to operating income of $900 million in the third quarter of 2021. International segment operating loss was $2.5 billion, compared to an operating loss of $900 million in the third quarter of 2021. AWS segment revenue was $5.4 billion, compared to $4.9 billion in the third quarter of 2021. Net income for the third quarter of 2022 includes a pre-tax valuation gain of $1.1 billion, which is included in non-operating income from its common stock investment in Rivian Automotive, Inc.
Amazon Web Services (AWS) net sales were $20.54 billion, up 27% year-over-year, and the market estimated $21.01 billion.
Operating cash flow decreased by 27% to $54.7 billion for the 12 months ended September 30, 2021 and $39.7 billion for the past 12 months. Free cash flow decreased to $19.7 billion for the 12 months ended September 30, 2021, compared to $2.6 billion for the past 12 months ended September 30, 2021.
Fourth-quarter revenue is expected to be $140 billion to $148 billion, with a consensus of $1,551.5 billion. Operating income is expected to be in the range of $0-4 billion, compared to $3.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021.
