Tesla (TSLA) will likely focus resources and its narrative on physical artificial intelligence technology projects, Oppenheimer said in a note to clients Thursday ahead of the company’s Q4 earnings on Jan. 29.
“We anticipate the company to be aggressive on framing its progress on AI related applications,” said Oppenheimer analysts including Colin Rusch.
The analysts said that Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk has already indicated an over 8 times expansion of mean time between failures on the company’s full-self driving application. “We anticipate the company will also tout an increase in total miles driven and provide updated progress on humanoid dexterity,” the note said.
However, there will also be “further moderation of near-term vehicles growth expectations as part of a strategic focus on AI,” the analysts said. Oppenheimer now expects 9% unit growth this year and 12% in 2026, but said there’s potential for downside to those forecasts if Model 2 takes share from low-end Model 3 configurations.
“As we lower estimates to reflect moderating US [and] EU demand, we remain cautious on [Tesla’s] underlying fundamentals and relative autonomous technology position,” Oppenheimer said.
Meanwhile, the relationship between Musk and President Trump is now a “a key variable for shares,” the analysts said, noting that Tesla added $150 per share since the US election.
Oppenheimer has a perform rating on Tesla.