United Airlines stock was taking off again early Wednesday as the carrier signaled accelerating demand trends in 2025 and impressed the market with its guidance.
The shares have soared 187% over the past 12 months — the third best-performer in the S&P 500 over that period behind only nuclear energy company Vistra and artificial-intelligence software company Palantir Technologies.
It’s even outperformed AI chip maker Nvidia — which reclaimed the title of world’s most valuable company from Apple on Tuesday.
Demand for AI may be red hot but so is demand for travel. The 10 busiest days in U.S. aviation history all came in 2024.
It’s especially strong among those looking for a premium experience and people traveling overseas. That plays into United’s hands as the carrier is heavily exposed to premium and international travel.
The continued recovery in corporate travel, as more workers have returned to the office and resumed in-person meetings has also helped.
United stock was rising 4.8% ahead of the open Wednesday, also lifting Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, and the broader sector — which has enjoyed a great run since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November. The new administration is expected to ease the regulatory burden on the sector, while the president’s pro-business policies and planned tax-cuts could further boost demand.
Earnings season has proved to be a catalyst for the sector so far after Delta Air Lines set the tone earlier this month.
United continued that momentum late Tuesday. The airline expects to report adjusted earnings of between 75 cents and $1.25 per share in the first three months of the year. Wall Street was expecting 53 cents.
TD Cowen analyst Tom Fitzgerald was more pessimistic, lowering his estimate to 31 cents per share earlier this week due to higher jet fuel prices. “We view this guidance in the face of the run up in fuel as emblematic of the strength of United’s revenue model,” he said in a note late Tuesday. He rates the stock as a Buy with a price target of $142, implying 28% upside to Tuesday’s closing price.
United’s full-year 2025 guidance for earnings of between $11.50 and $13.50 was roughly in line with expectations of $12.78.
The Chicago-based carrier reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $3.26 per share, above the $3.03 a share analysts expected. Revenue of $14.7 billion beat the $14.4 billion expected.
United said premium revenue increased 10% in the full-year 2024, corporate revenue was up 7%, and basic economy revenue increased 20% year over year. Loyalty revenue grew 12%, and cargo revenue jumped 30%.
The airline said it operated the most flights and carried the most passengers in the company’s history during 2024 — an average of 4,340 a day and nearly 174 million, respectively.
United’s blockbuster earnings report bodes well for American Airlines and Alaska Air, which are due to report earnings Thursday.