How long can Netflix’s stock stay hot? With sports and advertising both cooking, one formerly neutral analyst now sees recent business momentum continuing for years.
It’s time to think about Netflix Inc.’s stock in a whole new way, according to an analyst who’s just come around to a bullish view.
Previously, Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett was cautious about Netflix’s (NFLX) outlook and saw some risk to the multiple. But after a quarter in which Netflix “delivered on so many levels,” he thinks the stock “needs to be rethought.”
Crockett more than doubled his price target on Netflix shares – to $1,494 from $680 – while upgrading the stock to buy from neutral. That target is higher than any listed on FactSet, and it’s 56% above current levels.
He now thinks it’s possible that the company can beat its already raised outlook, helping to support his new multiple of 45 times 2026 earnings in “a market that we anticipate will confer a winner’s premium.”
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What’s working for Netflix? The company’s advertising tier has gained further momentum, with management predicting that it will hit “critical mass” this year. Crockett notes that means the service would have “a large enough scaled audience to be compelling to major advertisers.”
The company is also doing sports content in a compelling way, he noted.
“The audience Netflix amassed for the [Mike] Tyson/[Jake] Paul boxing spectacle surpasses anything that could have been done on TV, we believe,” he wrote. “Netflix said its average minute audience was 125 million, making it the most streamed sporting event ever. Yes, more people will watch the Super Bowl and World Cup on TV. But TV couldn’t whip up an audience like this for an event like that, in our opinion.”
All the while, the company seems to be picking its spot in sports so as to keep the economics favorable. “Netflix fared well in fourth-quarter margins, despite costs for these sports, and is raising the 2025 margin outlook, despite airing more sports, suggesting it has a better business model for sports, as sports costs have weighed on margins at TV media companies,” Crockett said.
See also: Netflix’s stock surges as huge subscriber beat goes beyond traction with sports
Overall, Crockett sees “momentum positioned to continue into later years, supporting a northward bias in valuation.”
Shares are up 10% in afternoon trading Wednesday and have nearly doubled over the past year.
The company won high praise elsewhere as well. “Netflix is simply running away with the streaming market thanks to excellent execution, a stellar content slate and scale advantages,” wrote Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney, who has an outperform rating and a fresh $1,100 target price on the stock.
He didn’t think that Netflix’s results offered any read-throughs for other streaming players, other than when it comes to management’s disclosure that the strong dollar will likely serve as a headwind.
Even MoffettNathanson analyst Robert Fishman, who kept a neutral rating, gave credit where it was due as he noted that Netflix’s fourth-quarter subscriber haul essentially matched what he had once been predicting for all of 2024.
“Netflix has proven itself to defy any notion of how a media company operates or grows,” Fishman wrote. “Netflix has not operated as a media company, but rather as a tech company. And it is that growth mindset – and the subsequent financial results – that helps justify the premium multiple at which the stock currently trades.”