Lithium Supplies Seen Rising, Weighing on Prices

Lithium supplies are expected to rise and potentially push down prices of the battery metal, Morgan Stanley analysts say. Australia’s spodumene shipments should start to improve in the coming months and African shipments should also recover following the end of the wet season, say the MS analysts. China is likely to record another year of strong production growth after easing environmental restrictions, and Chile’s exports are touching all-time highs, they add. “While the lithium price has held up well year-to-date, a loosening [supply-demand] balance from here brings downside risks,” say the analysts. “The China lithium carbonate price is currently trading close to our base case of $13,500/ton but we see room for it to fall below this, with the price already starting to roll over recently.”

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