CFRA Keeps Hold Opinion On Shares Of Costco Wholesale Corporation

We lift our target price to $846 from $770, 47x our FY 25 (Aug.) EPS of $18.01 (up from $17.32; FY 24 up to $16.42 from $16.04) vs. 38x five-year mean. COST posted a solid F3Q revenue/EPS beat, with traffic/average ticket up and renewal rates in U.S./Canada now at ~93%. COST saw positive comps in many nonfoods categories, a stark contrast to many other retailers, which we attribute to COST’s higher-income customer base and unmatched merchandising strategy. While we maintain a Hold on valuation concerns, we believe COST’s premium valuation can hold given 1) plenty of club unit growth (~25-30 per year; mostly in U.S., but also journey in China is just starting); 2) untapped opportunities in alternative revenue streams (e.g., retail media); and 3) a looming membership fee increase (likely within the next 12 months). With COST now with a new CEO and CFO, we think more focus will be put on areas where COST has historically underinvested (e.g., technology, e-commerce, data analytics/personalization, advertising).

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