CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
Our 12-month target price of $125, up $10, reflects a 5.8x multiple of enterprise value to projected 2025 EBITDA, slightly above COP’s historical forward average, but merited by our view for sustained high crude oil prices through the end of the decade. We lift our 2024 EPS estimate by $0.32 to $8.88, but trim 2025’s by $0.06 to $10.20. Q1 EPS of $2.03 vs. $2.38 matched the consensus view. COP generated $2.2B in free cash flow in Q1 and essentially earmarked the equivalent in returns to shareholders ($1.3B in buybacks, plus $0.9B in dividends). Shares outstanding are now down 3.5% Y/Y as well. Q1 production of 1.90 MMBoe/d was up 6% Y/Y (71% liquids, 29% natural gas). We see COP pursuing a flat production profile in 2024, but with reduced capex, particularly in the U.S. Lower 48. The total dividend of $0.78/share in the quarter ($0.58/share in ordinary dividends and $0.20/share in variable dividends) implies an annualized yield of 2.9%.