CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
Our 12-month target of $195, up $29, reflects a 7.1x multiple of projected 2024 operating cash flows, in line with MPC’s historical average. We raise our 2024 EPS view by $0.01, but lower 2025’s by $0.56 to $15.42. Q1 EPS of $2.58 vs. $6.09, in line with consensus. Q1 adj. EBITDA (~$3.3B) fell 38% Y/Y due to MPC’s Refining segment (-51%). Q4 refining utilization (82%) fell seven percentage points Y/Y, while throughput volumes (~2.7 mb/d) fell 6% due to turnaround activity. We believe MPC could face headwinds in 2024. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts flat Y/Y refined product demand growth in 2024; however, concerns surrounding economic growth, while U.S. consumer savings have become almost exhausted, could weigh heavily on refined product demand. At the same time, one mb/d in new refining capacity is set to come online in 2024 (per the International Energy Agency) and could alleviate market tightness on refined product inventory levels, which could impact MPC’s margins, in our view.