CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
Our 12-month target price of $175, raised $15, reflects a 5.7x multiple of enterprise value to projected 2025 EBITDA, slightly below CVX’s historical forward average. We think a modest discount is reasonable in light of CVX’s higher exposure to natural gas than its chief rival Exxon Mobil (XOM 119 ****), where we see continued price weakness in the near term. We lift our 2024 EPS estimate by $0.20 to $12.75 and 2025’s by $0.94 to $14.14. Q1 EPS of $2.93 vs. $3.55 beat the consensus view by $0.02. Permian production of 859,000 boe/d (26% of total Q1 production) was better than CVX had expected, helped by a lower decline rate, and the company now sees Permian production exiting 2024 at about 900,000 boe/d. We note that the planned acquisition of Hess Corp. (HES 162 ***) still needs a favorable resolution in arbitration given XOM’s challenge over Guyana, and if that decision is unfavorable to CVX, we think the rationale for the merger dissipates considerably.