A TikTok divestiture would be roughly neutral for Oracle (ORCL), while a ban would be a six-to-nine month growth headwind for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure beginning as early as the February 2025 quarter, UBS said in a note Monday.
In a divestiture, the buyer of Tik Tok’s operations would probably continue the current OCI contract until the termination date, the analysts said.
But in ban or shut-down scenario, Oracle would lose what is likely its largest OCI customer, UBS said, adding that this could be mitigated by a repurposing of the unused capacity, UBS said.
The recent decline in Oracle’s stock suggests the market has already adjusted the price to reflect the uncertainties related to TikTok, according to the note.
The bulk of TikTok’s cloud usage peaked in 2022 and it has not been a significant driver of recent revenue growth for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, the firm added.
UBS reiterated its buy rating on Oracle’s stock and kept the price target at $150.