Netflix (NFLX) is likely to report higher Q1 revenue April 18 as long-tail benefits of paid sharing become increasingly evident, Oppenheimer said in a note Thursday.
Analysts, including Jason Helfstein, said that Netflix has captured about 20% of the 100 million disclosed opportunity for paid sharing, and could have a 60% capture rate by 2026, mainly due to “increasing content advantage and content/advertising spend pull-back by competitor streaming platforms.”
They expect Netflix’s 2024 ad revenue to be $5.1 billion. The average revenue per member for 2024 is expected to rise 4% year-over-year, reflecting the recent basic and premium price increases in the US, the UK, and France, with potential upside from subscribers paying for extra members or other geographic price increases.
“We believe Netflix’s dominance will continue, given its clear advantage in producing high-engagement content and monetizing that content more effectively than peers,” the analysts said.
Oppenheimer kept its outperform rating and a $725 price target on the streaming media company.