CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
We lift our 12-month target from $198 to $221, calculated using an EV/EBITDA multiple of 17x (was 16x) against our 2024 adj-EBITDA of $141.8B (up from $137.0B) vs. the 12x-30x historical range. We lift our 2024 adj-EPS estimate to $6.85 from $6.45 and 2025’s to $8.53 from $7.18. Our upwardly revised estimates reflect margin expansion opportunities in 2024, driven by continued retail efficiencies (e.g., supply chain regionalization benefits), AWS growth reacceleration (e.g., GenAI investments), and robust advertising growth (e.g., Prime Video ads introduced in January). We see GAAP operating margins rising from 6.4% in 2023 to 9.4% in 2024, above the current 8.5% consensus, with free cash flow likely exceeding $70B (up from $37B in 2023). Risks include a slower consumer spending environment and lumpy AWS growth, noting AWS deal volume can be volatile Q/Q. AWS growth reaccelerated Y/Y in Q4 2024 to 13% (from 12% in Q3 and Q2). Investors will likely be looking for 14%+ Y/Y AWS growth in Q1 2024. We remain at Buy.