CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
Our 12-month target of $148, cut $6, reflects a 15x multiple of our revised 2025 EPS estimate, in line with UPS’s historical forward average. We cut our 2024 EPS estimate by $0.96 to $8.36 and 2025’s by $0.71 to $9.89. UPS held an Investor Day event today, outlining strategic and financial targets through 2026. UPS has guided for 2026 revenues in the range of $108B-$114B, an implied CAGR of 6.8%, but also reiterated its 2024 revenue guidance of $92.0B-$94.5B. At the midpoint of these ranges, we note that the cadence of revenue growth guidance suggests just 2.3% in 2024, but then accelerating ~4x to the 9% range in 2025 and 2026, which we think is highly aggressive barring a major uptick in market volumes. On the margin front, we similarly think management is asking both 2025 and 2026 to do a lot of heavy lifting to achieve its 2026 target of 13% (versus 10.9% in 2023). UPS is aiming to expand share in small premium business, but we are somewhat wary that gains in revenue per piece may be muted.