Eli Lilly and Company’s (LLY) phase 3 clinical trial of tirzepatide in obstructive sleep apnea is likely to miss consensus expectations given the gender imbalance in the study, but could still meet study endpoints, UBS said in a note Thursday.
The investment bank said it expects a 12% to 14% weight loss and a 30% to 37% reduction in the apnea-hypopnea index, or AHI, compared with the Street consensus for 20% weight loss and over 50% AHI reduction from baseline.
“We think gender imbalances are the main culprit as it’s well-documented females disproportionately lose more weight than males,” UBS said in the note. Males make up 70% of the trial participants, while females account for the remaining 30%, according to the note.
The firm maintained its buy rating on the company’s stock with a 12-month price target of $910.