Southwest Airlines Tempers First-Quarter Revenue Outlook, Flags 2024 Delivery Delays by Boeing

Shares of Southwest Airlines (LUV) tumbled nearly 15% on Tuesday after the carrier tempered its revenue expectations for the first quarter and said that Boeing (BA) delivery challenges will impact its 2024 capacity.

Southwest now sees revenue per available seat mile coming in flat to up 2% in the first quarter, compared with a prior view of 2.5% to 4.5% growth, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Roughly one point of the guidance decrease is due to higher-than-expected “completion factors in February and March,” with the remainder reflecting lower close-in leisure passenger volume. With a 99.3% completion factor since Feb. 1, the airline now expects first-quarter capacity to be up 11% versus a prior view of 10%.

“The company’s first quarter 2024 operational performance has been strong, thus far, and flight cancellations have been lower than was expected in late January, when first quarter 2024 capacity guidance was last provided,” Southwest said.

The carrier raised its fuel cost per gallon projection to between $2.95 and $3 from $2.70 to $2.80 previously.

Southwest said Boeing informed the airline that it should expect to receive 46 737-8 deliveries in 2024, down from a prior estimate of 79 overall MAX deliveries that would have included 58 737-8 aircraft. The carrier is now assuming no 737-7 deliveries and doesn’t expect any 737-7s to be put into service this year due to certification issues. Boeing didn’t respond to MT Newswires’ request for comment.

“As a result of Boeing’s continued challenges, the company expects the delivery schedule to be fluid and, therefore, plans to reduce capacity and re-optimize schedules, primarily for the back half of 2024, which will likely result in at least a one point reduction to the company’s full year 2024 capacity plans on a year-over-year basis,” it said.

The company said it is re-evaluating all prior 2024 guidance, including expectations for capital spending, and plans to provide an updated outlook when its reports first-quarter results on April 25.

American Airlines (AAL) separately said that its first-quarter adjusted loss per share will be toward the low end of its prior $0.15 to $0.35 range amid higher fuel costs. The company increased its average per-gallon fuel price forecast to between $2.80 and $2.90 from a prior view of $2.65 to $2.85. Its shares tumbled 4.1% in Tuesday trade.

“Fuel prices have increased considerably” since late January, American Airlines said. The carrier reiterated its guidance for available seat miles to be up 6.5% to 8.5% and total revenue per available seat mile to be down 3.5% to 5.5% for the first quarter.

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