CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
We lift our 12-month target to $249 from $195 on an EV/EBITDA of 16.6x, below Marriott International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAR)’s five-year forward EV/EBITDA of 18.6x, reflecting weaker growth prospects. We cut our ’24 EPS to $9.34 from $9.57 and set ’25’s at $10.73. MAR posted Q4 adj-EPS of $3.57, $1.45 above consensus. Revenue of $6,095M (+2.9% Y/Y) was $108M below consensus. Adj-EBITDA was +19.5% Y/Y to $1,197M vs. the $1,145M consensus, with margin at 19.6%. Comparable RevPAR was +7.2%, the average daily rate was +3.0%, and Occupancy was +2.6%. MAR’s results were mixed, with positive yet decelerating demand trends both Q/Q and Y/Y. Nonrecurring tax items (+$1.59 impact on EPS) likely also contributed to MAR’s ’24 guidance missing consensus expectations. Yet, MAR still expects RevPAR growth to slow meaningfully to 4%, despite higher net rooms growth guidance of 5.8% Y/Y at the midpoint. While the reaction to MAR’s results may be overblown, we think the risk/reward tradeoff remains unfavorable given MAR’s growth outlook and tougher comparisons in ’24.