CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
Our 12-month target of $160, cut $2, reflects a 5.8x multiple of enterprise value to projected ’25 EBITDA, slightly below CVX’s historical forward average. We think a modest discount is merited by CVX’s exposure to California refining, which is important to CVX’s overall downstream capacity, and is also where we see headwinds looming in ’24. We cut our ’24 EPS view $1.57 to $12.55 and set ’25’s at $13.20. Q4 EPS of $3.45 vs. $4.09, beat the consensus view by $0.23. We are also taking a more pessimistic tone to our outlook for energy prices through ’25. We see WTI prices flat to down vs. the $78/b average in ’22, and see only modest improvement in natural gas pricing. CVX remains cost disciplined, and in ’23 allocated more capital to dividends and buybacks ($26B) than it did for total capex ($16B). CVX should still obtain production growth via the Permian Basin and Guyana (the latter once the Hess Corp. [HES 146 ***] acquisition closes), but we think the near-term macroeconomic outlook will be difficult.