Consumer Discretionary

Estee Lauder Investors Spooked As F2Q Guide Bleak

/ / Consumer Discretionary /

Estee Lauder pulls guidance for its current fiscal year, but what insight it did provide for the current quarter spooked investors badly. The cosmetics company projects a F2Q sales drop between 8% and 6%, and adjusted EPS well below what analysts were expecting. The main culprit is the ongoing problems in China and the Asia retail market. While outgoing CEO Fabrizio Freda expects stimulus measures there to eventually stabilize the high-end beauty market, it’s going to take some time. Estee Lauder does buy some breathing room for new leadership, with a halved dividend to free up some resources. Estee Lauder plunges 23% premarket to $66.55.

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McDonald’s U.S. Orders Slowed While Spending Rose in 3Q

/ / Consumer Discretionary /

McDonald’s logged a small gain in U.S. comparable sales during 3Q as it pulled in slightly fewer orders year-over-year but guests spent more on average with each order. The fast-food chain says effective value marketing of its core menu and growth in digital sales and delivery contributed to the 0.3% U.S. comparable sales increase. But analysts had been targeting a 0.7% gain, according to FactSet, thinking that the chain would outperform its U.S. competitors in a tight spending environment for eating out. McDonald’s slides 2.3% to $290.01 premarket.

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McDonald’s Overseas Sales Fell More Than Expected in 3Q

/ / Consumer Discretionary /

McDonald’s recorded fewer comparable sales for 3Q due to shortfalls in its international markets that were worse than Wall Street had anticipated. Comps in the fast-food chain’s international operated markets were down 2.1%, led by poor sales in France and the U.K. The company’s international developmental licensed markets saw comps drop 3.5% due to the war in the Middle East and weakening sales in China, which more than offset growth in Latin America. Analysts had been expecting comps in both market groups to slip just 1.2%, according to FactSet. Investors had been bracing for some weakness overseas after Domino’s Pizza recently missed 3Q international sales projections.

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McDonald’s Fights for Struggling Consumers

/ / Consumer Discretionary /

McDonald’s says that families and lower-income customers continue to feel pinched across many global markets, making for a challenging environment for fast-food. McDonald’s is pushing its international franchisees to offer more value options, and expects to stay conservative with any price increases. “Consumers are certainly remaining resistant to pricing,” McDonald’s CFO Ian Borden says during an earnings call.

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General Motors Will Keep Shoveling Cash Back To Shareholders

/ / Consumer Discretionary /

In the last couple of years, General Motors has been an aggressive buyer of its own stock thereby sending about $20 billion back to shareholders via share repurchases. The company will keep shoveling cash back to its shareholders next year, CFO Paul Jacobson says. Jacobson reiterates that GM plans to spend another $5 billion or so on buybacks early next year to get its share count under 1 billion. That’s just the next mile marker, not the end of the buyback cruise, he adds. GM’s stock trades on a low multiple, a reflection of investors’ belief that the company’s long-term earnings power is in the gas-powered vehicle business, and skepticism about the company’s prospects in EVs and autonomous robotaxis. So, under Jacobson, GM has responded by giving investors another thing they love: cash. GM up 4.2% in early trading.

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Netflix Provided ‘Encouraging’ 2025 Guidance Amid ‘Strong’ Net Subscriber Additions, Wedbush Says

/ / Consumer Discretionary /

Netflix (NFLX) provided “encouraging” 2025 revenue guidance and reported “strong” net subscriber additions in the third quarter, Wedbush Securities said in a note Friday. “The primary driver of this surge will be a more robust content slate than we have seen in 2024,” Wedbush said in a Friday note following Netflix’s Q3 results released Thursday. The firm said the company’s gain of 5.1 million net paid subscribers in the quarter exceeded the consensus of 4 million. Wedbush said Netflix’s results for the quarter were “solid,” with revenue topping consensus, guidance and the firm’s estimate. Wedbush boosted its price target on Netflix to $800 from $775 and maintained its outperform rating. Netflix shares advanced more than 10% in recent Friday trading.

Netflix Provided ‘Encouraging’ 2025 Guidance Amid ‘Strong’ Net Subscriber Additions, Wedbush Says Read Post »

Netflix Expects Advertising Revenue to Double Next Year

/ / Consumer Discretionary /

Netflix’s ad-supported tier is growing at a healthy clip, leaving management to expect ad revenue to double in 2025 while still not a primary driver of overall growth, say analysts at UBS in a research note. The streaming giant saw a higher percentage of sign-ups opting for its ad tier in 3Q than in 2Q, say the analysts, and management expects to reach a critical scale across ad markets next year. Other takeaways the analysts note from Netflix executives include their suggestion that revenue growth in 2025 will be driven more by members than average revenue per member driven. “We believe the company could lean into monetization efforts with price/hour of consumption at the low end of peers and the content pipeline gaining steam,” say the analysts. Shares rise 11%, making it the best performer in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

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Delta Says Premium Airline Imitators May Struggle to Catch Up

/ / Consumer Discretionary /

Delta CEO Ed Bastian has a message for competitors who want to start chasing high end travel business: good luck. “It’s really hard to change course,” Bastian says. Rivals are adding more premium seating, bundling products to try to upsell passengers, and investing in free Wi-Fi, but Bastian says they may have trouble catching up to the investments Delta has already made. “We’ve been on this for years,” he says. “We’re not going to change course. If anything, we’re just going to continue to accelerate.”

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Domino’s Pizza Q3 Profit Beat Offsets Slight Sales Miss

/ / Consumer Discretionary /

Domino’s Pizza Inc. (DPZ) said Thursday it had net income of $146.9 million, or $4.19 a share, for its fiscal third quarter to Sept. 8, up from $175.6 million, or $4.18 a share, in the year-earlier period. Revenue rose to $1.080 billion from $1.027 billion a year ago. The FactSet consensus was for EPS of $3.64 and revenue of $1.099 billion. U.S. same-store sales rose 3%, while international same-store sales were up 0.8%. “Our third quarter results once again demonstrated that our Hungry for MORE strategy is resonating, despite a pressured global marketplace,” CEO Russell Weiner said in prepared remarks. The company is now expecting full-year global retail sales growth of about 6% and full-year income from operations growth of about 8%. For 2025, it expects retail sales growth to be roughly in line with 2024 expectations. The stock was flat premarket but has gained 0.2% in the year to

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Domino’s Pizza Delivered 3Q Sales Miss, Outlook Cut

/ / Consumer Discretionary /

Domino’s Pizza recorded weaker sales growth in the summer quarter than analysts had been expecting and lowered its top line guidance for the year. Total third-quarter revenue was up 5% at $1.08 billion, but analysts had been looking for closer to $1.1 billion, according to FactSet. The growth was driven by higher order volumes and prices, but partially offset by a customer shift toward less profitable products. Domino’s has been leaning on pizza deals and promotions to drive traffic as consumer spending remains pressured. The company said it now expects global retail sales to rise 6% this fiscal year, down from a previous outlook for 7% or higher growth.

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Netflix Earnings Are in 10 Days. Analysts Are Mixed on the Stock.

/ / Consumer Discretionary /

Netflix stock was downgraded by one analyst and upgraded by another on Monday, 10 days before the streaming company reports third-quarter earnings. Netflix stock has gained 48% this year, and that increase has helped push its valuation higher. Shares are now trading at 32.6 times the earnings expected over the next 12 months, which is higher than the S&P 500’s 21.7 times. Barclays analyst Kannan Venkateshwar wrote in a research note on Monday that the stock’s valuation is based on the assumption that Netflix’s revenue growth will remain in the low double digits for the foreseeable future. “Even if the company gets to its revenue growth goal, valuation is implicitly pricing in more than a doubling of sub [subscriber] base from present levels,” Venkateshwar wrote. He downgraded shares to Underweight from Equal Weight while maintaining a target of $550 for the price. Netflix introduced major changes to its business model

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Nike’s Q1 Earnings Beat Overshadowed by Weak Q2 Outlook, Withdrawn Full-Year Guidance, Morgan Stanley Says

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Nike’s (NKE) Q1 earnings beat was overshadowed by a disappointing Q2 outlook and the withdrawal of full-year guidance, Morgan Stanley said in a Wednesday note. “Decent [Q1] headline overshadowed by downbeat tone & forward outlook, in our view leaving bears with more to point to than bulls exiting 1Q,” Morgan Stanley said, adding that “FY guidance withdrawal & postponed Investor Day, in our view, highlight limited visibility & ongoing strategy uncertainty.” Morgan Stanley said recent developments reinforce its equal-weight thesis and suggest “a range-bound stock for some time.” While Nike beat Q1 earnings per share expectations at $0.70, challenges like weak retail sales and excess inventory led to a projected 8% to 10% year-over-year sales decline and an implied EPS of about $0.63 for Q2, below Street estimates, Morgan Stanley said. The Wall Street firm now projects fiscal 2025 EPS at $2.60, down from the previous $2.77, mainly due to

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