Consumer Discretionary

McDonald’s Soft Start, ‘Cautious Tone’ Weighing on Shares, RBC Says

McDonald’s (MCD) Q4 results indicated a soft start to the year, with a somewhat “cautious tone” seen weighing on its shares, RBC Capital Markets said in a Monday note. “Near-term, we see continued focus on domestic trends as the likely driver of MCD share performance, particularly in a more value-conscious operating environment,” said RBC analysts Christopher Carril and Khadijah Gibson. “Longer-term, we continue to see MCD as well-positioned across areas of increasing focus, including loyalty, menu and digital.” Looking ahead to 2024, the analysts said they adjusted estimates modestly lower, with EPS to $12.44 from $12.66, but adding that there could be potential earnings upside from easing margin pressures. RBC cut its price target to $335 from $340 while retaining its outperform rating.

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Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW) Could Get New Lift Ahead of Expected Rate Cuts ,says JPMorgan analysts

Lowe’s  (NYSE: LOW) benefited significantly from the slashing of interest rates and subsequent boom in home buying early in the pandemic, and stands to see some tailwinds again if the Federal Reserve cuts currently high rates this year, JPMorgan analysts say in a research note. They upgrade the stock’s rating to overweight, saying that the market is pricing in 150 basis points in rate cuts by this time next year, suggesting mortgage rates fall to about 5.5% by January. The last time mortgage rates were at 5.5%, single family existing-home sales trended at about 4.3 million homes, which would represent a 20% growth rate from recent levels, the analysts say.

Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW) Could Get New Lift Ahead of Expected Rate Cuts ,says JPMorgan analysts Read Post »

Trade Desk Likely to See ‘Revenue Re-acceleration’ in 2024, RBC Says

Trade Desk (TTD) is likely to see “revenue re-acceleration” this year as “solid” Q4 results set up the company for 2024, RBC Capital Markets said in a Saturday note. “The broader macro environment remains uneven, but we continue to pick up signs of improvement to start the year with Q1 likely being stronger than Q4 when adjusting for seasonality,” RBC said. The investment firm estimates Q4 revenue to be close to the 2.2% average beat in the past four quarters but noted that it expects the company to issue a “prudently conservative” Q1 outlook. RBC said current investor concerns revolve around the potential impacts of Google cookie deprecation and Amazon’s (AMZN) Advertising Video On Demand inventory. These concerns have been “overblown” but will still be “challenging” to dismiss near term, RBC added. Trade Desk is set to release its Q4 results on Feb. 15. RBC maintained its outperform rating on

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Target’s Top-Line Trends Seen Pressured in Fiscal Q4, UBS Says

Target’s (TGT) top-line trends likely continued to be pressured in fiscal Q4, though the retailer has a “compelling” setup into 2024, UBS Securities said in a note Monday. The brokerage projects Target’s fiscal Q4 earnings at $2.42 per diluted share on revenue of $31.61 billion. The market consensus is for $2.40 and $31.81 billion, respectively, according to UBS. The firm sees the retailer’s fiscal Q4 comparable sales falling 5.5%, compared with the market consensus for a 4.5% drop. “Our baseline thesis on Target is that it will get back to growing both its sales and profits this year, which will propel its stock higher,” UBS analysts Michael Lasser, Zeyn Burak and Mark Carden said in the note. “Its upcoming print should provide evidence that it has the tools to make this happen in the coming quarter.” UBS has a buy rating on the Target stock, with a $174 price target.

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Target (NYSE: TGT) Seen With Sales Rebound In 2024

Target (NYSE: TGT)  may be on track for a sales rebound in 2024, with several tailwinds returning for the company, according to UBS analysts. They say in a research note that moderating inflation on consumables will give shoppers more cash to spend on discretionary goods, which will benefit Target. The company will also be lapping easier comparisons in 2024, as 2023 saw less promotional activity than 2022 and the company’s sales took a hit in May and June from backlash to its Pride Month collection. Cost cuts and smaller losses from shrink will likely boost profit as well. The analysts back their buy rating and price target of $174. Shares rise 2% to $149.48.

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Airbnb Q4 Results to At Least Meet Estimates Amid Strong Bookings, BofA Says

Airbnb (ABNB) is likely to meet or even beat Q4 estimates as travel data points to strong bookings in November and December and with marketing savings also providing support, BofA Securities said Monday in an earnings preview. With Q4 average daily rate now seen at $155, up from the previous estimate of $154, BofA expects bookings and revenue for the quarter at $15.4 billion and $2.18 billion, respectively, compared with street forecasts of $15.1 billion and $2.16 billion. The brokerage projects Q4 EBITDA at $651 million, compared with consensus of $645 million. For the current quarter, BofA forecasts bookings and revenue of $23.2 billion and $2.08 billion, respectively, compared with street estimates of $22.9 billion and $2.06 billion. BofA now expects full-year 2024 revenue and EBITDA at $11.4 billion and $4.2 billion, respectively, up from its previous forecasts of $11.1 billion and $4.06 billion. But despite Airbnb’s potential upside from

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Walmart Poised for ‘Solid’ Fiscal Fourth-Quarter Results, UBS Says

Walmart (WMT) is expected to post “solid” fiscal fourth-quarter results and gain further market share in the grocery, health and wellness, and e-commerce categories, UBS Securities said Monday. The retail giant is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results Feb. 20. UBS raised its adjusted earnings outlook to $1.70 per share from $1.62 and expects revenue to grow 4.4% year over year to $171.28 billion. Wall Street is looking for adjusted EPS of $1.63 on revenue of $170.31 billion, according to the brokerage. “We believe (Walmart) generated good momentum in (the fourth quarter) despite the topsy-turvy spending backdrop throughout the period,” UBS analysts Michael Lasser, Zeyn Burak and Mark Carden said in a note. The company’s latest quarterly results and guidance “should provide more optimism on the sustainability of its recent share gains and its future potential,” the analysts said. UBS increased its US fourth-quarter same-store sales estimate to 3% from 2.5%.

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Walmart’s (NYSE: WMT) Alternative Profit Streams Seen Lifting Share Price

Walmart (NYSE: WMT) generated a good momentum in the 4Q despite the confusing spending backdrop experienced during the period, so its upcoming 4Q print and FY outlook should provide more optimism on the sustainability of its recent share gains, UBS analysts say in a research note. The biggest U.S. retailer should benefit from its defensive characteristics and idiosyncratic sales and profit drivers as it expands its marketplace, analysts say. “We think the company may provide more detail on its alternative profit story that could keep the stock’s valuation trading at a premium,” analysts add.

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Target’s (NYSE: TGT) Initiatives, Alternative Profit Segments Seen Driving Results

Target  (NYSE: TGT) will likely get back to growing both its sales and profits this year as the company prepares to grow alternative profit segments, UBS analysts say in a research note. The company should benefit from sequentially improved year-over-year growth rates in discretionary categories during November and December, even if the retail giant will likely forecast flattish sales. Furthermore, a potential launch of a membership program would help the company turn around the debate around losing market share, and its roundel advertising business should allow it boost its results, analysts say.

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